266
FXUS63 KTOP 172251
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW (80% TO 90%)
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TUESDAY WITH
SLICK ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY FROM AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
CONSIDER ALTERING TRAVEL PLANS FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MIN IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. ZONAL MID AND
UPPER FLOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS, EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ND, WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS. TEMPERATURES AT
1 PM WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS FROM I-70 NORTH WITH
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN, ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PROVIDE FOR
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THERE PROBABLY WILL ONLY BE
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY. A FEW MODELS SHOW LOW-LEVEL CAA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, WITH NO SNOW
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AS THE H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHS PLAINS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THERE WILL BE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH, COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 290K-295K LEVELS. THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
FORECAST QPF. THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS ARE ONLY FORECASTING
AROUND 0.2-0.25" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
NORTHWARD TO THE NE BORDER. THE HREF MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED
AROUND 0.35" ALONG I-70 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH CLOSE TO
0.5" ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF COFFEE AND ANDERSON.
GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA, LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL BE IN THE 17-20" SNOW TO
1" OF LIQUID. THEREFORE, TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY MAY REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG I-70, WITH 5 TO 10" ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35. IF THE QPF IS LESS THAN FORECASTED, THEN
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A COUPLE INCHES LOWER THAN FORECASTED.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE NE BORDER MAY ONLY REACH 2 TO 4
INCHES. WHAT MAY CAUSE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE STRONGER
ASCENT DUE TO MID AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE A DEEPER MID LEVEL DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE 1/2" HOURLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
ONCE THE H5 TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST CROSS THE CWA, THE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. A SECOND PERTURBATION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA. THERE MAY BE A DUSTING OF SNOW
IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
AS THE CENTER OF THE ND RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS,
EXPECT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT LOWS WILL REACH 0 TO -6
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT EVEN FEEL COLDER WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS REACHING DOWN TO 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF THE THE FLUFFY SNOW.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN WITH INSOLATION. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN TO 12 TO 18 BELOW ZERO. EVEN A MINOR BREEZE
WILL MAKE THE WIND CHILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, WITH SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS ALONG THE NE
BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN TO 5 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. THURSDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 20S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A GOOD WARMING TREND. A WEAK POSITIVE TILT H5
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ADVECT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS KS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MONDAY, HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN AND PREVAILING
IMPACT TO AVIATION THIS TAF PERIOD. A BAND OF SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TERMINALS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL DIPS TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS
OF SNOW.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -9 (1978) 1
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -4
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -5
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -11
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -9
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -4
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -1
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 8
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 11
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 8
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...JONES
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS
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