915
FXUS63 KTOP 181123
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
523 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
(80% TO 90%) TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHER TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-70 AND I-35 CORRIDORS.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH SLICK
ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY FROM AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. CONSIDER
ALTERING TRAVEL PLANS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MIN IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE
BANDING WAS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. LAST EVENING A BAND PRODUCED ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO AS HIGH AS 4
INCHES AS IT MOVED SOUTHWARD. SATELLITE STILL SHOWS COOLING TOPS AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVERSPREADS EASTERN KANSAS. FURTHER UPSTREAM
ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGHOUT A DEEP
SATURATED DENDRITIC ZONE. QPF AROUND 0.20 INCH ALONG I-70 AND UP TO
0.40 INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 18
TO 1 AND 20 TO 1. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME LULLS IN SNOW THIS
MORNING, BUT ANTICIPATE LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE, THEN INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ENERGY EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TO AROUND 4
INCHES ALONG I-70 AND ANOTHER 6 INCHES SOUTH OF THE I-35 AND I-335
CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER MAIN CONCERN ARE THE TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH THE WINDS
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 35 BELOW NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER
TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
RELIEF THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
TONIGHT, THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO WITH LOWS FROM 2 TO 8 BELOW ZERO,
HOWEVER THE WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 BELOW
ZERO RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SO FAR WITH READINGS FROM 9 TO 16 BELOW
ZERO. AGAIN WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SOME
AREAS MY APPROACH 15 BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WARM BACK INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z, THEN BECOME
PRIMARILY MVFR, SNOW INCREASES TOWARD 18Z AND COULD LOWER CIGS
DOWN TO IFR. VSBYS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO MVFR WITH THE SN
THROUGH 16Z, THEN BECOME MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES THROUGH 21Z. VSBYS
INCREASE TO VFR AFTER 23Z. WINDS NORTHEAST AROUND 12KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS, DECREASING TO BEAR 10KTS AFTER 23Z.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 301 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA - 9 (1978) -1
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -4
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -3
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -14
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -12
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -6
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -2
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 9
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 12
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 8
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS
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