832
FXUS63 KTOP 190349
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
949 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END THIS EVENING. EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 MAY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES..
- SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MIN IN THESE
CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST AZ.
A POSITIVE TILE UPPER TROUGH ACCENTED FROM NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MT.
AT THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
EASTERN NORTHERN PLAINS, EXTENED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUED TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS AT 1 PM.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN KS THERE WAS AN AREA OF MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONTOGENESIS WAS PROVIDING LIFT FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WAS A BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35, AS 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WAS COLOCATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FOR AN AREA OF STRONGER ASCENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-35, THERE WILL BE MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 MILES IN MODERATE SNOWFALL. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL,
AS VERY DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR -15 DEG C WERE ADVECTING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AREAS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KS
SOUTHEAST TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR MAY RECEIVE AND ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS, ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35
MAY RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AS SOME OF THE MODERATE
SNOW BANDS TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. I WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING, SINCE SOME
AREAS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. I WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THERE MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL
0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
EASTERN KS INTO MO. THE LIGHT AND MODERATE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH TO
FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 7 PM. THE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION ACROSS MT WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
H5 TROUGH ACROSS IA/MO. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL PERTURBATION FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOUR OF
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW OR JUST FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK
BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILL INDICES DROPPING BACK TO 18 TO 24 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KS INTO WESTERN OK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SOME READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND
10 DEGREES. WIND CHILL INDICIES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND SOME
INSOLATION MAY MAKE IF FEEL A BIT WARMER. CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO
11 TO 16 DEGREES BLOW ZERO. A SLIGHT BREEZE WILL CAUSE WIND
CHILL INDICES TO DROP DOWN TO -18 TO -30 BELOW ZERO. THEREFORE,
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP DOWN TO 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
FRIDAY:
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST INTO MO. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THERE WILL BE SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE TRAPPED UP IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW
AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS TX. DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WILL ADVECT EAST ACROSS KS WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 50S, WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT
AT THIS TIME. NORTH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS FOR MOST
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 301 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA - 9 (1978) -1
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -4
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -3
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -14
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -12
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -6
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -2
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 9
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 12
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 8
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...TEEFEY
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS
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