322
FXUS63 KTOP 191115
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
515 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MIN IN THESE
CONDITIONS
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING WATERVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 08Z.
WIND PROFILES FROM THE VAD SHOW A LEAD SUBTLE PERTURBATION MOVING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO ALONG WITH
WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WERE PRODUCING
WIND CHILLS OF 12 TO 20 BELOW ZERO AT 08Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO AND FACTORING THE WIND CHILLS THAT REMAIN BELOW ZERO WILL MAKE
FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY.
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW
COVER WILL YIELD SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER SO FAR
WITH LOWS IN THE 11 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST YET RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH NOON ON
THURSDAY.
THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 DEGREES.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY, WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH AS WELL AS RISING HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE 20S. A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
DRY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. WARMING CONTINUES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S
SATURDAY AND 40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO THE WARM UP ON SUNDAY. A WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WARM ADVECTION IN THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN SKIES BECOME CLEAR BY
02Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WITH VFR
VSBYS. WINDS NORTH AROUND 10KTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST 4-6KTS
AFTER 01Z.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 240 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -4
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -4
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -14
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -13
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -5
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) 2
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 8
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 7
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 12
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 11
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS/53
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