926
FXUS63 KTOP 192322
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIGID WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY, BUT MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
SUBZERO WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND -15.
- A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A 1048MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS WITH ITS ARCTIC INFLUENCE EXTENDING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS. A 500MB TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A SUBTLE PERTURBATION
WITHIN THAT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MO AS OF 20Z. THIS LEAVES US IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND SOME CLOUD STREETS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR
OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE AND FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN MUCH LIGHTER WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD, BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES IT WON'T TAKE MUCH WIND
TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. IF WINDS STAY CALM FOR AWHILE,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURE, BUT EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS, MANY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST
TO SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS ABOVE
ZERO UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE SFC HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN ITS WAKE. THIS DOES LOOK
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH. WINDS STILL
LOOK LIGHT, SO PERHAPS THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP US
ABOVE CRITERIA TO PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL HEADLINE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CONDITIONS LOOK BORDERLINE IN
SOME AREAS WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND -15 DEGREES AND LOWS STILL
BELOW ZERO. CONTEMPLATED A NEED FOR POPS FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS
ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION, ASIDE FROM PERHAPS SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS REACH THE 20S.
THE BIGGER WARMUP IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THIS PLUS PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FEW LOW 40S SATURDAY, BOOSTING TO THE 50S SUNDAY, THEN 60S POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PATTERN FAVORS DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THAT UPPER
TROUGH LEAD TO LOW POPS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN VERY LIGHT
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 240 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -6
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -14
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -12
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -2
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) 1
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 8
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 7
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 13
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 13
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...TEEFEY
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS/53
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