485
FXUS63 KTOP 201011
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IMPROVING
BY MIDDAY. COLD WEATHER WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY.
- WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD THROUGH FRIDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
ON WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS
GENERALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THAT STILL FALL TO
AROUND 15 BELOW FOR A SHORT DURATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- FRIDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON, A FEW FLURRIES OR DUSTING OF SNOW
MAY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
MEANINGFUL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
- AN EARLY SPRING-LIKE WARMUP IS LOOKING POSSIBLE BY EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IS SETTING UP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL
OPEN WAVE NOTED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SNOWPACK AND A
BITTERLY CA AIRMASS IS STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL AND THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP
ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE
SUPPRESSED BY THE SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
BREEZE. MORNING WIND CHILLS STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD TO START AND
BITTERLY COLD THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS TONIGHT FINALLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTH HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 20S FOR HIGHS
ON FRIDAY.
THE WEAK COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ADVANCES
EAST AND MOVES OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT BUT WEAK PVA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO
MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY TO KEEP THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
SATURATED ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A DUSTING
OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS. NOT ANTICIPATING MEANINGFUL
IMPACTS BUT MORE OF AN ANNOYANCE AT THIS POINT.
GOOD NEWS IS ON THE HORIZON THOUGH WITH WESTERN RIDGING BECOMING
MORE ESTABLISHED INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSLOPING FLOW INFLUENCES SHOULD HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S TO START NEXT WEEK. ANY
SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL QUICKLY VANISH AND A
TASTE OF SPRING WILL BE HAD ACROSS THE REGION LASTING FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WORKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. SOME MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD STREAM OVER THE AREA MIDDAY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 240 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -14
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -12
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -3
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) 1
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 13
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 10
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS/53
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