228
FXUS63 KTOP 202325
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING UP ABOVE FREEZING
THIS WEEKEND.
- WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE VERY COLD THROUGH FRIDAY BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ON WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. COULD SEE A
FEW SPOTS GENERALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THAT
STILL FALL TO AROUND 15 BELOW FOR A SHORT DURATION EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
- A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY BECOME POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
TRACE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S EXPECTED MONDAY!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY REACHED THE SINGLE DIGITS AFTER BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -10 TO -15 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT A TOUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS; STILL BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 0 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE.
THANKFULLY, WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF AN ISSUE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MID-LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS; POSSIBLY A TRACE IN SOME PLACES, BUT WITH THE LOW
LEVELS VERY DRY AND NEEDING TO BE SATURATED BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION
HITS THE GROUND, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL SUBLIMATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. ADDED SLIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW AND FLURRIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY THE EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE
WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ABOVE FREEZING WITH 50S AND 60S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY, A FEW UPPER-LEVEL WAVES
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD INCREASE POPS BY THE MID
TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. RIGHT NOW, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH THE STRENGTH, LOCATION AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, SO IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY EVERYWHERE
WILL SEE PRECIP. THAT SAID, DID NOT OPT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE NBM
FOR POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LUCKILY, AT THIS TIME THERE ARE
NO STRONG SIGNALS THAT THE EXTREME COLD AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
AT ANY POINT IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, SO GO OUT AND ENJOY THE WARMER
WEATHER!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR PREVAILS. WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY, A SMALL SYSTEM MOVES OVER, BRINGING
MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 220 PM CST THUR FEB 20 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -3
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) 0
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 13
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 10
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...TEEFEY
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER
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