945
FXUS63 KTOP 210838
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
238 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD FOR ONE MORE MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND
15 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE.
- COULD SEE A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
NOT EXPECTING MEANINGFUL IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST
WITH 60S POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE AREA.
- ANY RAIN CHANCES BY MID-WEEK STILL APPEAR LOW AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS LIFTED INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND WILL SOON EXIT THE CONUS. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS SET
UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
POSITIONED OVER COLORADO. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. A BROAD ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CELL IS STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS BUT BEGINNING TO SLIDE EAST WITH THE RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AREAS.
A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE
SUPPRESSED BY THE SNOW COVER AS WELL AS PERIODS OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTING OVERHEAD AS IT ADVANCES EAST. OVERALL
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS COMPACT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF MOSTLY FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE AN AREA OR TWO THAT SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT OVERALL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL
ALONG WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MELTING OF SNOW
PACK IS LIKELY TO STILL BE LIMITED TODAY.
INTO SATURDAY, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
INTO THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RISE NICELY INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. GOOD NEWS REMAINS ON THE
HORIZON WITH A WESTERN RIDGE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSLOPING FLOW
AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S TO START NEXT WEEK. ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND
INTO NEXT WEEK WILL QUICKLY VANISH AND A TASTE OF SPRING WILL BE HAD
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING FOR THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. A LOW END CHANCE
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING COMES INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW PASSES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. WINDS ARE CALM OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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