121
FXUS63 KTOP 220438
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1038 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (<20% CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS) INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- WARMING TREND ON TRACK INTO THE EARLY WEEK AND LITTLE CHANGE INTO
THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS HAS
TRANSITIONED TO A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A MODEST UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS SPREAD SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OVER A SMALL AREA OF NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING
WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SMALL AREAS OF INCREASING RETURNS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. CLOUD BASES THERE REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET AS OF 19Z
BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATES AROUND 600
MB. COULD SEE ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
FRONTOGENETICAL/DEFORMATION AREA OF THIS LOW PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THE GROUND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. RATHER
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP AMOUNTS MITIGATED. WILL WATCH LATEST
OBSERVATION AND MODEL TRENDS FOR FINAL PRECIPITATION DETERMINATION.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH NOTABLE 850MB TEMPERATURE RISES OF AROUND 11 C
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AND ANOTHER 5 C SUNDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SHOW A NOT-UNEXPECTED RANGE OF SEVERAL DEGREES
FOR THESE DAYS BUT ALSO SHOW A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SNOW
FIELD AND IT DIMINISHING WITH TIME SO HAVE KEPT NBM TEMPS FOR THESE
PERIODS. SEVERAL WEAKER UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW INTO THE
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY, MONDAY NIGHT, AND AROUND WEDNESDAY)
BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD, THOUGH THE LATTER WAVE SHOWS
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. WINDS COULD GET A BIT BREEZY
BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WITH SOME DROP IN TEMPERATURES, BUT
RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MIDDAY SATURDAY TO AROUND 10 KTS.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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