516
FXUS63 KTOP 261113
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-70
THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM CHANCES PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO THE 50S
SUNDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ENTERS
THE CA COASTLINE, PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BL IS DRIER WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR 20 PERCENT, WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
PRECLUDE NEED FOR A HEADLINE (HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS PRESENT).
WEAK MID LEVEL EMBEDDED TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-70
MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES.
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AMPLIFIES TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS H85
TEMPS INCREASE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 18C BY 12Z. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY POSE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY MORNING. AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-
70). ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SEVERE
HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM 50-60 MPH WITH
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES IN UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG AND WEAKER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AT 25-30 KTS. STRONG BL MIXING SHOULD MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA, ALBEIT GUSTY FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35
MPH.
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT
STILL VARIES AMONGST GUIDANCE, HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT STRONGER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY SATURDAY NIGHT OVER FAR
EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI. THIS SCENARIO WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE AND THEREFORE MODEST POPS WERE KEPT THROUGH
SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND DEFORMATION ZONE ON SUNDAY COULD LINGER RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AS TEMPS HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS COOL THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY INTO THE 40S AS NORTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO 30 MPH. HIGHS DROP BACK TO THE 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
LOWS NEAR FREEZING ARE ANTICIPATED. WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR AT TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VRB WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFT 15Z TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED MID CLOUDS
INCREASE AREA WIDE AFT 15Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY AFT 06Z FOR LLWS AS A 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AMIDST LIGHT WINDS. STRENGTH OF THE JET IS OF
QUESTION AND WILL BE REEVALUATED AT THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
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