686
FXUS63 KTOP 271105
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
605 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND RH VALUES DOWN TO 30 PERCENT.
- THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES PERSIST LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING,
CARRYING MINOR VORT MAX INTO THE AREA. WEAK ASCENT IS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AS MOISTURE ADVECTS DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S BEFORE
SUNRISE IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. HREF GUIDANCE SIGNALS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON SEVERE STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF I-70 THIS
MORNING, EXITING EAST IN THE LATE MORNING. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE (LESS THAN 500 J/KG) WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
NEAR 30 KTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD,
POSITIONING NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG BL
MIXING COUPLED WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 20C ENHANCES CONFIDENCE IN NEAR
RECORD HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ADDITIONALLY, THE DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PICKS UP SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THIS
IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY, DESPITE THE
MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR 30 PERCENT. IF DEEPER MIXING WERE TO
OCCUR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, RH VALUES COULD FALL AS LOW AS
19% HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW-MODERATE. STORMS
FORMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON TIMING OF A EMBEDDED WAVE - A FEATURE THAT IS NOT STRONGLY
APPARENT ON MOST HREF GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HINTED AT
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FULLY SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION AMID STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE CAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND SEVERE PROBS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON
SATURDAY, A STRONGER OPEN TROUGH SURGES A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, DIFFERING ON TIMING BETWEEN GUIDANCE WITH THE MEAN
WIND DIRECTION BISECTING THE CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, EVEN THOUGH THE PARAMETERS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE ON THE LOWER END. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
NEXT WEEK, WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH AN ADDITIONAL
WAVE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS QUICKLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ON
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONTINUES AT TERMINALS AS LLWS THIS MORNING WANES QUICKLY
BY 15Z AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF OBSERVED TSRA IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH
ONLY PASSING MID CLOUDS. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AGAIN AFT
00Z, HOWEVER SFC BOUNDARY LAYER IS MORE MIXED WITH GUSTS
SUSTAINING TO PRECLUDE LLWS FROM DEVELOPING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND RECORD-
CONCORDIA: 90 RECORD: 89 IN 1895
TOPEKA: 85 RECORD: 87 IN 1895
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
CLIMATE...REESE
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