040
FXUS63 KTOP 281922
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
222 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, GREATEST
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS.
- WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO NOTABLE UPPER TROUGHS THIS AFTERNOON -
ONE WEAKER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST, AND A
LARGER/DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. PROMINENT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS IS ONCE AGAIN PLACING A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH KANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME THICKER STRATUS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT, BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. THE CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL HELP INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE DRYLINE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAKENING CIN. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
HOW EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS, AS EARLIER/FARTHER WEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP MORE OF THE AREA AT RISK. GIVEN TYPICAL MODEL
BIASES, LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE EARLIER SIDE OF THINGS, SOMETIME IN
THE 5-7 PM CDT TIME RANGE. ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN INITIAL SUPERCELL RISK.
THESE WOULD BE PRIMARILY A LARGE (1.5-2.0") HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER
GIVEN A QUICK SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION, AND A SHEAR VECTOR
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, STORMS SHOULD STEADILY GROW UPSCALE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN HAZARD TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WIND
RISK AS THEY MOVE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH LATE EVENING. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARDS
SUNSET, BUT THE UPSCALE GROWTH AND RATHER HIGH LCLS SHOULD KEEP THIS
THREAT VERY LOW OVERALL.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE BY EARLY TO MID MORNING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AGAIN SETS UP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEP UPPER LOW. MOISTURE
RAPIDLY RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD. GIVEN A VERY DYNAMICAL SYSTEM, THE QUALITY AND
TIMING OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED, AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD LIKELY MATERIALIZE IF THE HIGHER END OF INSTABILITY
GUIDANCE PANNED OUT. SLOWER MOISTURE RETURN WOULD ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEP ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THAT,
IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE ANOTHER BREEZY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
PASSES ACROSS KS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, STRONGEST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 3 KFT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
LOWERING THIS EVENING, BEFORE A MORE CONTINUOUS MVFR STRATUS DECK
ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 30-40% ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. THIS COMBINATION OF LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN
ABILENE TO HIAWATHA LINE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 28:
FORECAST RECORD (YEAR)
TOPEKA 60 58 (1981)
CONCORDIA 61 55 (1986)
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN
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