689
FXUS63 KTOP 290517
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, GREATEST
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS.
- WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO NOTABLE UPPER TROUGHS THIS AFTERNOON -
ONE WEAKER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST, AND A
LARGER/DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. PROMINENT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS IS ONCE AGAIN PLACING A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACH KANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY. INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME THICKER STRATUS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT, BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. THE CLEARING SKIES COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL HELP INSTABILITY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES A SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE DRYLINE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK WEAKENING CIN. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
HOW EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS, AS EARLIER/FARTHER WEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP MORE OF THE AREA AT RISK. GIVEN TYPICAL MODEL
BIASES, LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE EARLIER SIDE OF THINGS, SOMETIME IN
THE 5-7 PM CDT TIME RANGE. ML CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN INITIAL SUPERCELL RISK.
THESE WOULD BE PRIMARILY A LARGE (1.5-2.0") HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER
GIVEN A QUICK SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION, AND A SHEAR VECTOR
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, STORMS SHOULD STEADILY GROW UPSCALE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MAIN HAZARD TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WIND
RISK AS THEY MOVE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH LATE EVENING. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARDS
SUNSET, BUT THE UPSCALE GROWTH AND RATHER HIGH LCLS SHOULD KEEP THIS
THREAT VERY LOW OVERALL.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
STORMS SHOULD BE DONE BY EARLY TO MID MORNING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AGAIN SETS UP TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEP UPPER LOW. MOISTURE
RAPIDLY RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD. GIVEN A VERY DYNAMICAL SYSTEM, THE QUALITY AND
TIMING OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED, AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD LIKELY MATERIALIZE IF THE HIGHER END OF INSTABILITY
GUIDANCE PANNED OUT. SLOWER MOISTURE RETURN WOULD ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEP ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THAT,
IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE ANOTHER BREEZY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
PASSES ACROSS KS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-10Z. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO IFR, BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR STORMS
AT TERMINALS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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