328
FXUS63 KTOP 290744
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
244 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN
TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY IS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, SHUNTING A 995MB SURFACE LOW INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW, LIFTING STRATUS INTO THE AREA. STRATUS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A SECOND
PERTURBATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CHANGE TO
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH A DELAYED EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS LEADS TO
LESSER CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK. EVEN SO, DECREASING CIN ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL OF 1-1.5" IN DIAMETER WOULD BE THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN AREAS WHERE THESE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE MORE FAVORABLE IN THE 5-8PM TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST AREA IS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS STRONGER. THE SECOND FOCUS AREA
IS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS GREATER
GIVEN ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING WAVE.
INITIAL CONVECTION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST
INTO EAST- CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 8-10PM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
IN THE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS AND THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ROUND
OF CONVECTION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT A
BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AFTER SUNSET. THE SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY UNDERCUT THIS CONVECTION AND LEAD TO
A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ENDING BY 12-1AM.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY APPROACHES AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TO BEGIN
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
(30-40MPH) BUMPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT WORTH WATCHING
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER; THE COLORADO STATE MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOWS A 5-15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR DETAILS
OF THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME CLEARER, SO STAY TUNED. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PASSING
PERTURBATIONS LEADING TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-10Z. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO IFR, BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR STORMS
AT TERMINALS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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