605
FXUS63 KTOP 291950
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS, WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK
UP TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS IN MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OF NOTE WITHIN
THE PATTERN. THE FIRST IS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NE AND THE OTHER
IS MOVING THROUGH NM AS OF 19Z. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP IN
CENTRAL KS WITH A COLD FRONT CLOSING IN ON OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS
COUNTIES. HOW ALL OF THESE FEATURES INTERACT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA AND FOR HOW LONG CONDITIONS WILL LINE UP JUST RIGHT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. OVERALL, IT APPEARS TO BE A
NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY, WHICH MAY KEEP THE RISK MORE LIMITED
IN COVERAGE.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MENTIONED WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE 700MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z, KEEPING
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA AROUND THE TIME THE SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AROUND 23Z,
ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS WEAKER IN THAT AREA
COMPARED TO WHEN IT GETS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST A COUPLE HOURS
LATER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BY 22-23Z WITH SBCAPE
RANGING 1000-2000 J/KG (HIGHEST IN EAST CENTRAL KS) ALONG WITH 30-35
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS IN NORTH CENTRAL KS, AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. OVERALL, FORCING WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
LOOKS BEST FROM NORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KS. AREAS NEAR THE HWY 75 CORRIDOR COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN
7-8PM AND DEVELOP INTO A MORE ORGANIZED LINE, WITH THE SEVERE RISK
LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 10-11PM FOR EAST CENTRAL KS. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
03-04Z, WHICH WOULD PUT AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THAT
SAID, THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN OK (CLOSER TO
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE) IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH THESE
WOULD BE ELEVATED.
THE BULK OF RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE, FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. CAA WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND HIGHS IN THE
50S ONCE AGAIN.
A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURGE OF WAA BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THIS BRINGS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR
STORMS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL, SO THIS
WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR. THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF INTO MN
BY WEDNESDAY, LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA FOR THE DAY. A
BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN ALOFT LEAVES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGING AROUND THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, KEEPING LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME GRADUAL LIFTING JUST BARELY TO VFR AT
TAF SITES, BUT SURROUNDING OBS REMAIN AT MVFR, SO HAVE GONE WITH
A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME BOUNCING AROUND BEFORE CLOUDS
SCATTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK BREEZY WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00-02Z, THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSRA ARE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES, BUT WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 00-02Z JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, FELT IT WAS WORTH A PROB30 MENTION AT TOP/FOE. FROPA WILL
PUT AN END TO TONIGHT'S SEVERE RISK, BUT THEN TOP/FOE LOOK TO BE
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COMING FROM OK
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
REACHING TAF SITES IS NOT HIGH WITH THIS ROUND, THE RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY AND THESE SHOULD LIFT AFTER THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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