416
FXUS63 KTOP 300741
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
241 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK UP TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS IN MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A MID LEVEL TROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST TEXAS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT 07Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
07Z HAD THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION. CLOUDS AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S, WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S.
ON TUESDAY, A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS. A LEAD WAVE EJECTS OUT INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY MORNING AND DEEPENS DURING THE
DAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TUESDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE THE UPPER TROUGH
DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, COOLING OFF INTO THE 50S FOR
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE PER SATELLITE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT TOP AND FOE AND THROUGH 22Z
OR SO AT MHK WHERE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-14KT RANGE, DECREASING TO
10KTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53
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