267
FXUS63 KTOP 301934
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT. IT IS LOOKING
LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WHILE MOST PEOPLE ARE ASLEEP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN IA
WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN KS. ANOTHER CLOSED
UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE OBS
PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OZARKS DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TX. THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WAS KEEPING
TEMPS MUCH COOLER THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, SURFACE RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP NEAR ZERO IN SPITE OF SOME
MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A QUASI-ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP
SOME WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ALONG WITH CLOUDS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
30S BUT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE COULD SEE TEMPS
DIP TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT SURFACE RIDGING PASSING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP HIGHS STUCK IN THE
50S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER THE MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOW TO COME NORTH AND THE BETTER
SATURATION APPEARS TO STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ELEVATED SHOWER DEVELOPING. BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR RAIN DON'T LOOK VERY GOOD.
MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST DEEPENS TO AROUND
985MB. THE 12Z RUNS ARE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST NORTH
CENTRAL KS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH. MEANWHILE A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ADVECTED AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW PRODIGIOUS
BULK SHEAR (0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 70KT) WITH THE SYSTEM WITH
LARGE SWEPT OUT HODOGRAPHS. 0-1KM HELICITY IS PROGGED TO BE AS
MUCH AS 500 M2/S2 AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG WIND PROFILE. THIS
DRAWS ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES TUESDAY EVENING.
SHEAR WILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
MAINLY BE ELEVATED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG.
SO SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND THE
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STORMS.
AS FOR TORNADOS, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WHERE STORMS COULD INGEST SURFACE PARCELS BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. PERHAPS THE WORSE PART OF THIS FORECAST IS
THE TIMING WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION FORECAST TO OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE MOST ARE ASLEEP. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS MORE THAN 48 HRS OUT, BUT THIS WILL NEED WATCHING
OVER THE COMING SHIFTS.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRESSING EAST INTO MO BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND LIFT OUT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THIS PATTERN, SO HAVE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS TEMPS REMAINING
IN THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE NBM HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM THE INITIALIZATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LIFTING ABOVE 3KFT AROUND 18Z ONLY
TO LOWER BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME
CONTINUITY FROM THE RAP WITH THIS. OTHERWISE THE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING
MONDAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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