424
FXUS63 KTOP 311123
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING. IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- COOL WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD
COVER WAS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AT 07Z. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WAS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT 07Z WHILE A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WAS PRESENT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT, THEN DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPENING LOW WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EML
MIXING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE/PACIFIC
FRONT. DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH THE HIGHER READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY
EVENING. BULK SHEAR UP TO 70KTS IS STILL FORECAST BY THE MODELS AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE FOCUSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
IN THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE SWEPT OUT HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH SURFACE
TO 1KM HELICITY UP TO 500 M2/S2 ARE FORECAST. MOST STORMS LOOK TO
BE ELEVATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STRONG WINDS MIX DOWN WITH THE STORMS.
THE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY 15-16Z, THEN REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS NORTH NORTHWEST UNDER
10KTS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 23Z, THEN BECOMING
SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS BY 08Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53
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