904
FXUS63 KTOP 312333
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT.
- OFF-AND-ON CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- A RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TONIGHT--TUESDAY MIDDAY...INCREASING STRONG/DEEP WARM ADVECTION MAY
SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. VERY
LIGHT TO TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AREAWIDE FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING
TUESDAY WELL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45-50 MPH, STRONGEST OVER THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN HOISTED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING--NIGHT, AS A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COMBO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, AMIDST INCREASING INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION, AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTH "JUST IN TIME", RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY, UNSURE IF STORMS WILL BE ABLE
TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THINKING THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD MID-EVENING, AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CATCHES UP TO THE DRYLINE.
STORMS SHOULD THEN PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT, EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 4-6 AM.
DESPITE INSTABILITY CONCERNS, VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND AN ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. STORM MODE
COULD BE RATHER MESSY, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO
THE DRYLINE BY MID-EVENING, WHICH WOULD TEND TO LESSEN "HIGHER-END"
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS. EVEN SO, THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS (WHETHER
ISOLATED OR EMBEDDED IN A LINE) WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WELL INTO THE NIGHT,
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 12-2 AM GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET.
THEREAFTER, INSTABILITY AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND
TO WANE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT.
STAY TUNED, AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
THURSDAY--EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEVELOPING AND PERSISTENT WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH OFF-AND-ON CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT COULD DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THOSE
WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WIND DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z. LOWER CEILINGS MAY START TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CEILINGS ARE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO PUT IN THE TAF.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...JONES
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