740
FXUS63 KTOP 031638 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK, PEAKING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING (40-70%), FOLLOWED BY HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM MO NORTH THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH AXIS OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. AS OF 09Z, OBSERVATIONS
OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE MO RIVER
VALLEY, THOUGH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ANY LOW-LYING AREAS TO SEE SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL ENDING BY ABOUT
13Z. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD TODAY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS WE'LL STILL SEE
SOME INFLUENCE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
INCREASE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND EJECT A LEAD SHORTWAVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY AND ARE HIGHEST (40-70%)
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATES OVER
THE AREA AND IS SLOW TO MOVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, KEEPING CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD, POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. OVERALL,
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS SIMILAR IDEAS WITH SMALL VARIATIONS BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS AND THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD, WHICH HELPS TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE LARGER SPREADS IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE IMPACT
CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD HAVE, BUT AS IT STANDS NOW HIGHS ARE FORECAST
IN THE 60S AND 70S. INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER 1000
J/KG THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, SUGGESTING LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE GET WITHIN
RANGE OF THE MEDIUM AND SHORT-RANGE MODELS.
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD DRY OUT INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS PUSHED TOWARD THE GULF AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NNE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/LESS THAN 5KTS AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
(20%) OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR THE RIVER WHICH COULD IMPACT
TOP AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE ISN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...OMITT
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