267
FXUS63 KTOP 031918
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TONIGHT WITH PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA. IN THE SHORT TERM,
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE INTO PLACE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS
WILL ALLOW AIR TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWS SHOULD
END UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN AVG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
MANY SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON SO FOG RISKS LOOK LOW ASIDE FROM
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER GREAT DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND NEAR AVG
TEMPS AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHEAST KS
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NARROW RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO
UPPER LOWS. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
AS THE 100KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SW AND FINALLY BEGINS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER KS. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN MODEST AT LEAST
BASED OFF THE 12Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IT MAY BE MORE RAIN
AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED T-STORMS AND THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
THE UPPER LOW MAY FINALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY NEXT
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND NEXT SAT/SUN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NNE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/LESS THAN 5KTS AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
(20%) OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR THE RIVER WHICH COULD IMPACT
TOP AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE ISN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
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