258
FXUS63 KTOP 040525
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TONIGHT WITH PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA. IN THE SHORT TERM,
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE INTO PLACE OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS
WILL ALLOW AIR TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWS SHOULD
END UP IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN AVG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
MANY SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON SO FOG RISKS LOOK LOW ASIDE FROM
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER GREAT DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND NEAR AVG
TEMPS AROUND 70 WITH LIGHT ESE WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHEAST KS
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NARROW RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO
UPPER LOWS. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
AS THE 100KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SW AND FINALLY BEGINS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS EAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER KS. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN MODEST AT LEAST
BASED OFF THE 12Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IT MAY BE MORE RAIN
AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED T-STORMS AND THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW
GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
THE UPPER LOW MAY FINALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY NEXT
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND NEXT SAT/SUN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT/CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY
FROM THE E/ENE LATER THIS MORNING, BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN GROUND FOG FORMATION
AT KTOP THIS MORNING ISN'T AS HIGH AS IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY
MORNING, AND IF IT DOES FORM, IT WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...PICHA
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