076
FXUS63 KTOP 041735
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN BECOMES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (40-70%
CHANCE), FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEPICTS ONE CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A SECOND TROUGH DEEPENING AND LOOKING TO DEVELOP
INTO ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. THIS LEAVES THE RIDGE
AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THIS WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND MONDAY.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A PIECE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN
CANADA LOOKS TO BREAK OFF AND PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST,
CAUSING IT TO EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THAT LARGER SYSTEM ENTERS THE REGION TUESDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY JUST BEFORE THE CORE OF
THE LOW MOVES IN. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW, KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER LOW
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. FRIDAY HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN EAST
CENTRAL KS, BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND AS THE LOW GETS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
RELATIVELY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN, BUT HIGHS IN
THE 60S STILL AREN'T FAR AWAY FROM AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. OTHERWISE,
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL MIFG APPEAR LOWER AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE BREACHED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...POAGE
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