367
FXUS63 KTOP 041940
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MODEST THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
NARROW UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE UNTIL HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE
THESE CONDITIONS, A RETURN OF THE PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH A DRIER/WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ON
TAP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THESE PERIODS.
THE UPSTREAM LOW SWINGS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, MAKING
CONTINUED SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE LATE WEEK. AT LEAST A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SEEM LIKELY THOUGH
THE HAZARD POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING VERY
LOW PROBABILITIES OF OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THE GEFS DEPICTING
VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SURFACE CAPE AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MUCAPE
OF OVER 500 J/KG, RESPECTIVELY. NBM POPS DROP OFF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SPECIFIC TRENDS IS LOW.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND FOR
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL MIFG APPEAR LOWER AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE BREACHED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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