881
FXUS63 KTOP 051718
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW, MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY UP TO 0.60 INCHES THIS
WEEK, FOCUSED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
REX BLOCK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA. LEAD WAVE UPSTREAM OF THE
LOW MAY BRING HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON AS
LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST BY THE EVENING. HIGHS CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES BEFORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS ARE EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
HREF AND RAP RUNS DELAYING WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNTIL THE EVENING WHILE
THE HRRR IS THE OUTLIER WITH AN EARLIER AFTERNOON ONSET. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PRETTY LOW (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE
SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CENTERS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS AN 80 KT MID LEVEL JET ENTERS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS THE LOW CENTERS OVER THE STATE AND THE H85 FRONT TOWARDS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. ISOLATED THUNDER IS MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY
PRESENT THIS FAR NORTH. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO DWINDLE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS GRADUALLY PICKED UP
AND SHIFTED SOUTHEAST BY AN EASTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL RAIN
TOTALS THIS WEEK RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER TO 0.60
INCHES SOUTH OF I-70. SUNNY SKIES RETURN BY FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO
WARM INTO THE LOW 80S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NW/E WINDS. SOME DIURNAL CU MAY HANG AROUND INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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