181
FXUS63 KTOP 051931
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
231 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RETURN
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, RANGING
FROM 0.70 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
CLOSE TO THE KS/NE BORDER.
- DRY AND NICE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
AN OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND ONE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REMAIN CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERCOLATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN UPPER LOW AND SHOULD ADVECT SOME
HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY, EXPECT VERY NICE CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH MID 70S TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER FILTERS OVER THE REGION. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW TO
THE WEST SHOULD HELP TO PUSH SHOWERS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST
CAMS HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN AROUND 6-
7 PM TUESDAY EVENING. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING BELOW
100 J/KG. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
COINCIDING WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE UPPER LOW.
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE ELEVATED INSTABILITY A BIT (ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG AT BEST) HINTING AT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BEING
POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS A BIT EAST WHILE BECOMING
ENVELOPED WITHIN A LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FOR MOST DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS RAIN EXITS FROM THE WEST TO
EAST. FOR THOSE THAT SEE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY,
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED WITH HIGH-BASED
CLOUDS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 SEEING UPWARDS OF 0.5-0.7 INCHES OF PRECIP.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE KS/NE BORDER, ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE REALIZED.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTLED
OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES GET BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE LOW 80S AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NW/E WINDS. SOME DIURNAL CU MAY HANG AROUND INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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