431
FXUS63 KTOP 061117
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE WEDNESDAY.
- WEDNESDAY IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AND RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S WHEREAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S DURING THE WORK WEEK AND LOW
80S THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.
THE SLOW MOVING PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD DELAY MEASURABLE
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL THE EVENING AS MOST CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THUNDER PROBS REMAIN LIMITED AND ISOLATED GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE (<500 J/KG OF MUCAPE) ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER BASED ON THE ENSEMBLES CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN POSITION OF THE
LOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS THE GEFS
MEAN IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE STRENGTH OF A SECONDARY LOW
ENTERING THE REGION COMPARED TO THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. MODEST
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT HOWEVER MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IF CONSENSUS TRENDS DRIER. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE
WEEK HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR THE NE
BORDER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN FAR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITS EAST BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES CUTOFF IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY ADVECT WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR AT SITES AS INCOMING SYSTEM INCREASES HIGH CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUD DECK AROUND
060-080 KFT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES IN COVERAGE BY THE EVENING
AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHRA DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
INTRODUCED VCSH AT ALL SITES WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TIMING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
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