661
FXUS63 KTOP 061844
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
144 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
DIMINISHING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
- DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEAKENING PRECIPITION BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS FAR NORTH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL THIS TIME. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND AN INCH BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
BELOW 7 C/KM FOR A LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT THURSDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR CAPE TO REACH
AROUND 500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH COULD
BRING THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HEAVIEST OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH LIKELY
BEING THE EXCEPTION.
THE UPPER LOW GETS SHUNTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE IT COULD RETURN NORTH INTO EASTERN MISSOURI
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SMALL POPS TO FAR EASTERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH STEADILY-WARMING CONDITONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z THOUGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING CEILINGS INCREASE
BEYOND THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN LIMITING CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW
BUT MOST LIKELY AT MHK AFTER 15Z. MODEST EAST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE, BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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