620
FXUS63 KTOP 062241
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
DIMINISHING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
- DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEAKENING PRECIPITION BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS FAR NORTH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL THIS TIME. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND AN INCH BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
BELOW 7 C/KM FOR A LIMITED THUNDER CHANCE WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT THURSDAY. COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR CAPE TO REACH
AROUND 500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH COULD
BRING THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HEAVIEST OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH LIKELY
BEING THE EXCEPTION.
THE UPPER LOW GETS SHUNTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A VERY SMALL CHANCE IT COULD RETURN NORTH INTO EASTERN MISSOURI
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SMALL POPS TO FAR EASTERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY WITH STEADILY-WARMING CONDITONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NM
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ONSET TIMING OF RESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBY. RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS LOW CIGS COULD MOVE IN AROUND 09Z, BUT THE CAMS HOLD
OFF ON A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS UNTIL MIDDAY. THINK I WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR SOME LOWER CIGS BY 10Z, BUT BY 17Z OR 18Z
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN OCCASIONAL SHRA WITH LOW MVFR CIGS. VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH 08Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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