969
FXUS63 KTOP 071053
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DRYING OUT THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HAS LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF INSTABILITY
HAS PRECLUDED ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
FOR MOST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS
TREK TO THE EAST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED OVERALL WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (<500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE) ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE KS/NE STATELINE INCREASE TO 0.25-
0.50" ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35
RECEIVING 0.50-0.75" OF RAINFALL. THE HREF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LOCALES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO EVEN REACH 1" OF RAINFALL.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
ASCENT LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A FEW ISOLATED EAST-TO-
WEST MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-40%), BUT NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE RAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT STILL QUITE
LIMITED AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
SURFACE RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW IS PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS APPROACH TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS MAY STAY JUST SOUTH OF TERMINALS. STILL THINK
CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES, BUT HAVE TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE TAF. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SITES
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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