747
FXUS63 KTOP 071733
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DRYING OUT THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HAS LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF INSTABILITY
HAS PRECLUDED ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
FOR MOST IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS
TREK TO THE EAST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED OVERALL WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES (<500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE) ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ALONG THE KS/NE STATELINE INCREASE TO 0.25-
0.50" ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35
RECEIVING 0.50-0.75" OF RAINFALL. THE HREF SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LOCALES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO EVEN REACH 1" OF RAINFALL.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
ASCENT LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A FEW ISOLATED EAST-TO-
WEST MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-40%), BUT NOT EVERYONE
WILL SEE RAIN. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, BUT STILL QUITE
LIMITED AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
SURFACE RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED
LOW IS PUSHED SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHOWERS AND SOME PERIOD OF BRIEF MVFR CIG WILL REMAIN THE
SHORT-TERM AVIATION HAZARDS WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN
TOWARDS KTOP AND KFOE. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DECREASES THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR KMHK. SOME VCSH MAY NEED
TO BE HELD ON THROUGH THE EVENING AT KTOP AND KFOE OVERNIGHT,
BUT MOST SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS SO OPTED TO
KEEP OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LATE TAF. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION MAY BECOME REALIZED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR NORTH THIS GET IS
STILL IN QUESTION AND THUS, WAS KEPT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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