882
FXUS63 KTOP 080508
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1208 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%) THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER LOW HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH EAST INTO SOUTH
EASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN OK AS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WRAP AROUND INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
HAS SLOWLY PUSHED NORTH TOWARDS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ROTATE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS I-70 AND SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 0.4-1 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 1.25 INCHES. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST PWATS
FROM THE SPC MESO PAGE AS IT SHOWS A SWATH OF 1-1.1 INCHES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70, A QUICK DROPOFF IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THIS
AREA WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE LIMITED. AMOUNTS FROM I-70 NORTH TO THE
KS/NE STATE LINE WILL RANGE FROM 0.4 INCHES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS,
RESPECTIVELY. MID-LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST. AREAS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS MAY SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIFT REMAINS OFF TO OUR EAST FOR
MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS PAIRED WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1200 J/KG (BASED OFF CAMS)
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, SOME STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE, BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR NEARLY OBSOLETE, STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND SUB-SEVERE.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN QUICKLY TO NE KS FOLLOWING THE CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS SHOULD CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
VERY NICE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW AFTERNOON RHS AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE 40S. BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST HELPING TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK AS A LONGER-
WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT OVERALL LOCATION AND
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE. STAY TUNED IN THE COMING
DAYS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE, BUT A FEW REMAIN NEAR
KTOP/KFOE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT
KTOP/KMHK AND VSBY WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN 2-6SM THROUGH
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE FOG LIFTS. WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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