763
FXUS63 KTOP 081120
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE (15-30%) FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON;
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRY AND WARMING UP FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO THE EAST THIS MORNING,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING, BUT IS WANING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND PLENTIFUL
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY, BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ASCENT
REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO
THE EAST, BUT A WEAK PERTURBATION DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT A ROBUST INITIAL UPDRAFT, BUT A LACK OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. EVEN SO,
A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
SURFACE RIDGING TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE CLOSED LOW IS SHUNTED SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. DRY AND
WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW PROBABILITY (10%) OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE EJECTION OF THIS TROUGH, SO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHALLOW FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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