175
FXUS63 KTOP 081855
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
155 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
- QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE UPPER LOW WAS SLOWING OVER OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY PER THE
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A WEAK PERTURBATION ROTATING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. WEAK
RIDGING REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS NOTED
ACROSS EAST TX AND SOUTHERN AR.
THERE MAY STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POP UP IN THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. MODELS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION TO A SURFACE
PARCEL BECOMING BUOYANT. BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK SO
ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE ORDINARY KIND. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOK
TO SET UP TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION PROGGED FROM THE MODELS. SO THERE COULD
BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG FORM AROUND SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER LIKE THE KS
RIVER VALLEY.
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN A SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND ENERGY LIFTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUPPORT
THE BLEND FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT
WITH 90 FOR A HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH ANY DIURNAL CU
DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND DAY BREAK
FRIDAY. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN THE RIVER VALLEY AND WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS. OTHERWISE RIDGING BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN
PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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