842
FXUS63 KTOP 092255
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
555 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER IS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
1830Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US THAT LEANING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MEAN
WESTERLIES REMAINED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CANADA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE PATTERN WAS NOTED OVER AR.
SURFACE OBS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT FOG FORMATION LOOKS TO BE LESS LIKELY WITH SOME DRY
PROGGED TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS ALREADY LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AS WELL
INDICATIVE OF LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS GENERALLY IN BETWEEN ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z MODELS NOW SHOW THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF
PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. STILL MODELS KEEP ANY QPF
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES AND 12Z
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. COOL MORNINGS AND
WARM AFTERNOONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 90.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...JONES
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