572
FXUS63 KTOP 100519 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER IS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
1830Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US THAT LEANING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MEAN
WESTERLIES REMAINED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS CANADA.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE PATTERN WAS NOTED OVER AR.
SURFACE OBS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
FOR TONIGHT FOG FORMATION LOOKS TO BE LESS LIKELY WITH SOME DRY
PROGGED TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS ALREADY LOWERED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AS WELL
INDICATIVE OF LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
FOG FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS GENERALLY IN BETWEEN ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AN UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE 12Z MODELS NOW SHOW THE CLOSED LOW ALONG THE GULF
PERHAPS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN BEFORE. STILL MODELS KEEP ANY QPF
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES AND 12Z
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. COOL MORNINGS AND
WARM AFTERNOONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 90.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SMALL SHALLOW
FOG ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS AT TOP OTHERWISE NO VIS OR CIG
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
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