280
FXUS63 KTOP 101113 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES BY FRIDAY INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
OR CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE
RIVER BOTTOMS HERE AT BILLARD AIRPORT THIS MORNING BUT
SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MOST AREAS FOG FREE THIS MORNING AT THE
MOMENT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA.
OVERALL A QUIET, STAGNANT BUT PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN US TROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDS IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL
EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF
WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE TX GULF COAST SO STORM CHCS APPEAR LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS DESPITE THE FORCING. THE BIGGER STORY ON WEDS WILL
BE THE HIGHS WHICH SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT INTO MN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY
WHEREVER IT ENDS UP. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ANY
ADDITIONAL ENERGY OR TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION SAT INTO SUN IS
LOW AT THIS POINT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS IN HANDLING A TRAILING UPPER SYSTEM HOWEVER IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT STORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AT TOP NEAR THE RIVER BOTTOMS WHILE THE REST OF THE TAF SITES
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CONDS. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
LEAVING ALL SITES WITH VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
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