925
FXUS63 KTOP 280518
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN LATE DAY WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY TOWARD CENTRAL INTO EAST-
CENTRAL AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE DAY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SPIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE PRIMARY LOBE OF
ENERGY THAT IMPACTED THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES HAS DEPARTED
TO THE EAST AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE LARGELY COME TO AN END
WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY IS POISED TO DIVE
INTO THE REGION LATER TOMORROW WHICH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACTING AS A WEAK
BLOCKING PATTERN AND THUS RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA.
BALANCE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, CLOUDS LINGER AND LIKELY LITTLE TO NO
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE EVEN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT
INVERSION REMAINING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, CHANCES INCREASE FOR LIGHT
RAIN ONCE AGAIN AND FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND AN OVERALL WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO THE AREA,
EXPECTING SIMILAR SETUP TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL AREAS IN CONCERT WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONG FORCING WORKING OVERHEAD. LIMITED OPPORTUNITY STILL
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG MOISTURE RETURN, SO GENERALLY EXPECT
AROUND 1" OF QPF FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS. MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 1" TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS UPPER WAVE WORKS THROUGH, THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. A WESTERN RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO SETUP INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS
OVERALL HEIGHTS RISE WITH A THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE. LATE SATURDAY,
MOST MODELS STILL HAVE A SIGNAL FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE PROBABILITY IS STILL LOW OVERALL JUST IN
HOW MUCH QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD BE IN PLACE SO A DRY FORECAST
REMAINS AT THIS TIME. LOOKS FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
SCATTERING OUT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT AREAS OF GREATER
CLEARING HAVE BEEN RATHER PATCHY THUS FAR, SUSPECT THAT FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WITHIN THESE CLEARER AREAS WILL BE PATCHY AS WELL. GREATEST
CHANCE WILL BE NEAR KMHK TOWARDS SUNRISE. TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING,
CLOUDS AGAIN THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS MVFR AS MORE RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...REESE
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