509
FXUS63 KTOP 281754
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE WARMING
UP FOR THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN RETURNS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS (>0.5")
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ANY RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED.
- TURNING DRIER BEGINNING THURSDAY. STILL A FEW LOW-END CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY/TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS DOMINATED BY A CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW, WITH ONE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RAIN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS, SUBSIDENCE IS HELPING SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
OUR RECENT RAIN, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THE MOST. COULD SEE THIS FOG BECOME LOCALLY
DENSE BY AROUND SUNRISE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN AREAL EXTENT OF ANY
DENSE FOG REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OBSERVATIONS
IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. REGARDLESS, ANY FOG
SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY
RISING TO NEAR 70 BY THE AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING THOUGH, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN AS
ANOTHER VORT MAX SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER LOW, PUSHING A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, THE
POSITION OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WILL RESULT IN
RAIN AMOUNTS QUICKLY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SOME MINOR
NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING AMOUNTS
TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10" NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER TO
AROUND 0.50" NEAR INTERSTATE 70 TO AROUND OR A BIT OVER 1.0" IN
SOUTHERN MORRIS, LYON, OSAGE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE NEOSHO RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF
RAIN, THIS MAY KEEP SOME LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A
BIT LONGER. OTHERWISE THOUGH, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS FROM THE RAIN.
ONCE ANY LINGERING RAIN MOVES OUT THURSDAY MORNING, A DRIER TREND
SHOULD TAKE HOLD AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN TURN SHOULD
RISE BEGINNING FRIDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DID ADD SOME LOW-END (20%) POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION, BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INCREASING
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MON/TUE AHEAD OF A
WESTERN US TROUGH. THIS WOULD KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND, ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
-SHRA BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. POTENTIAL FOR TS
IS VERY LOW, SO KEEPING SEVERAL HOURS OF -SHRA DUE TO GRADUAL
MOVEMENT OF THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. VIS
COULD LOWER AT TIMES TO AROUND 4SM WHILE SHOWERS PASS BUT
EXPECTING SHORT DURATIONS WHICH MAY BE ADDED AROUND THE 00Z
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SHOWERS END IN THE MORNING, THERE COULD
BE CIGS THAT LOWER TO IFR CATEGORY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW
LONG THIS MAY LAST INTO THE MORNING. LIKELY MARGINAL VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER SHOWERS COME TO AN END.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...DRAKE
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