455
FXUS63 KTOP 282340
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MOSTLY NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT - HIGHEST TOTALS CENTRAL INTO EAST-
CENTRAL AREAS WITH AROUND OR JUST OVER 1" OF TOTAL RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED.
- EAST-CENTRAL AREA RIVERS BECOME ELEVATED AGAIN AND MAY REACH OR
REMAIN IN MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGES.
- DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS. ANOTHER VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
IS WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AT THIS HOUR. SURFACE FRONTS REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE
INVOLVED FOR ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING TO HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS AS THE
FLOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION.
TONIGHT, THE SHOWERS LIKELY LAST SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SO AS THE VORT
MAX WORKS ACROSS THE AREA NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER OR ENHANCED RAIN
RATES. AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO OK/TX REGION, DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS SHUNTED SOUTH
AS WELL. HOWEVER, VAD WIND PROFILES OVER WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST KS
AREAS SUGGEST H85 FLOW IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FROM THE SSE. THIS
HINTS THAT THE BEST MOIST CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT AS FORECAST OVER
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL KS AREAS. EXPECTING THIS IS WHERE SOME OF
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL STACK UP TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 1"
OVERALL. THIS WILL STILL PARTIALLY IMPACT THE COTTONWOOD AND NEOSHO
RIVER BASINS WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP KEEP THESE RIVERS AT ELEVATED
LEVELS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND A
DRYING TREND TAKES PLACE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA WITH RIDGING WORKING EAST AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS. THE OLD UPPER LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM ONCE AGAIN AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME RECENT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE AREA TO HELP NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAIN NORTHEAST AS WELL. THE EC MEMBERS HAVE NOW SUGGESTED THERE
MAY BE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDE DOWN INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY BUT
THIS REMAINS A LOW CHANCE. HAVE MAINTAINED LESS THAN 20% CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT THIS MAY CONTINUE TO FALL IF THE SCENARIO
PLAYS OUT WHERE MORE RIDGING IS OVERHEAD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. OVERALL, THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
NEXT WEEK, A WESTERN TROUGH IS BEING ESTABLISHED AS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE TO WATCH BY MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN
ACTIVE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME
FRAME ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED DOWN TO 4 TO 5 SM IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE STRATUS CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP WHEN THE
STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SEVERAL CAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 5Z THU,
THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO IFR OR LIFR CRITERIA AFTER 9Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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