700
FXUS63 KTOP 291646
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADIER RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TOMORROW, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY, OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED
WHEN STORM CHANCES INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING EAST ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
THIS MORNING. AS IT MOVES INTO MISSOURI OVER THE MORNING HOURS, THE
CURRENT LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME WILL BE
COOL AND DRY.
TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, WHILE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STILL WATCHING
SATURDAY FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL IS LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE, AND
THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND DRY.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ON SOME SORT OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL MAKE UP THE LARGER TROUGH. THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE PAST
DAY HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SYSTEMS,
DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WHENEVER THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME EVENTUAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES,
BUT THIS WILL REMAIN VERY DEPENDENT ON THE MOTION AND TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES, WHICH AS MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. AT ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ON
THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE UNTIL THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR AT TERMINALS AS MVFR CLOUD DECK SCATTERS TO BROKEN VFR
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...PRIETO
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