799
FXUS63 KTOP 292303
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
603 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AREA WIDE. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM TOWARDS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ALVIN IS MIGRATING NORTH TOWARDS BAJA
CALIFORNIA, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT
IN SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 3 PM. SHORT
TERM CAMS ARE VARIABLE IN COVERAGE OF PRECIP, HOWEVER ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH 200-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
ON SATURDAY, MAXIMIZING WARM ADVECTION TO NORTHEAST KANSAS WHERE H85
TEMPS RANGE FROM 15-20C. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY 90
DEGREES ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE INCREASED MIXING AND AMPLE HEATING.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW PROGRESSES SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, EXHIBITING VARYING SOLUTIONS AMONGST ENSEMBLES
ON THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND COVERAGE OF STORMS, WHILE ECM AND THE
NAM ARE MUCH WEAKER AND DRIER SO HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REMNANTS FROM ALVIN LIFT INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
ENTERING THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. TIMING OF THE OPTIMAL FORCING AND
ANY CONVECTION LATE MONDAY EVENING COULD IMPACT THE OVERALL SEVERE
SETUP ON TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE, RELYING ON THE CLEARING SKIES AND INSTABILITY
RECOVERING FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ARE CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER 10 PM
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME WAS LOW, SO OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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