901
FXUS63 KTOP 301122
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY PM, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KS. A FEW STORMS COULD (20%) HAVE SMALL HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR RECENT COOL AND RAINY STRETCH FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST,
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, SO FAR THE DRIER AIR IS PRECLUDING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
PLAINS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A WARMING TREND. WITH SUNNY
SKIES TODAY WE SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW SPOTS
PERHAPS HITTING 80.
TEMPERATURES WARM EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DEEPLY MIXED,
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITHIN
THE BROAD NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. COOL 700-500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SOME MODEST (500-1000 J/KG) SB CAPE
DEVELOP. SO WHERE WE SEE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT ALONG THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE, WE SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP. GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO, WITH
MOST 0Z CAMS SHOWING AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL KS. INSTABILITY IS JUST ENOUGH THAT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFT, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONGER (THOUGH STILL ONLY 20-25 KTS).
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF DRY
AND STILL WARM DAYS. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH DAY,
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE (~20%) THAT WE'LL HIT 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE DEEPENING WESTERN
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY KICK EASTWARD A CUTOFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN
DRIFTING OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS THIS LOW
PHASES WITH THE MAIN JETSTREAM AND MOVES ACROSS KANSAS, WE'LL SEE
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARDS AHEAD A COLD FRONT. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WE SHOULD AT LEAST
SEE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THE FRONT ISN'T FULLY EAST OF THE
AREA, GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR UNDER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MORNING RAIN AND STILL NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE SHAPE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, IT REMAINS TOUGH TO HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYING
WEST OF THE AREA THOUGH, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR TWO
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOW (20-40%) POPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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