342
FXUS63 KTOP 310538
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL KS (20% CHANCE). STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THOSE STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LEAVES US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH RIDGING
APPROACHING UPSTREAM FROM THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT
THE SURFACE, KEEPING LIGHT WINDS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WE ARE
WELL ON OUR WAY TO REACHING THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES, AS DOES DEEP MIXING
UP TO AROUND 750MB. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A
QUICK-MOVING, COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THE TIMING OF THIS
SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING. CAMS VARY A BIT ON COVERAGE, BUT CENTRAL KS
WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS, SO IT WOULD MAKE SENSE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO BE A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED TOWARDS THAT AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH THE WELL-MIXED
PBL AND DCAPE AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG, WHICH COULD BRING STRONG WINDS
TO THE SURFACE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, INSTABILITY
GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FURTHER SOUTH AND TOWARDS CENTRAL KS, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
SHEAR, WHICH MAY GET TO 30 KTS AT BEST BUT 20-25 KTS LOOKS MORE
PROBABLE. THE WAVE ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA LATER
IN THE EVENING, BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO AN END.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS OCCURS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OTHER
THAN SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
KEEPS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST LOOKS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH A RESULTING MCS MAY
TRACK (OK VS SOUTHERN KS). THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE SFC
FEATURES WILL LINE UP ON TUESDAY, AND LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FASTER
PROGRESSION WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM ANY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AS WELL.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CERTAINLY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT BEARS
MONITORING, PLENTY OF QUESTIONS EXIST AS TO HOW INTENSE STORMS MAY
BECOME ON TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN US WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES KEEPING STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER LOW DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT, SO POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 20-40%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST. SOME SMOKE ALOFT
WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
STORMS INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST BUT REMAIN LOW AND NOT QUITE WORTHY OF
INCLUSION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...POAGE
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