798
FXUS63 KTOP 311732
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL REMAINS.
- STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW FOR MODEST WEST WINDS AROUND 850
MB FOR WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND A WARMER DAY SATURDAY. A COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING ENTERS EASTERN
KANSAS LATE TODAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND LIMITED CIN
AHEAD OF IT. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY THOUGH ITS
LOCATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN. OVERALL BETTER (30-40%)
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXIT IN SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY APPROACHING 50 KNOTS FOR
AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF A LEAST
1000 J/KG LIKELY SUPPORTING A HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL RETURNS BY EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE REMAINS REASONABLY UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS WAVE
WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STORMS FORMING TO THE WEST MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY DAYTIME SOUTH WINDS
SUPPORTING PRECITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND MUCAPE OF AT
LEAST 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL IMPACT STORM SEVERITY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH (90%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE NBM
SEEM HARD TO ARGUE WITH FOR NEARLY EVERY LOCATION AT SOME POINT OVER
THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME HOWEVER AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AMOUNTS FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
THE MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE STORM CHANCES IN THE MID
TO LATE WEEK THOUGH INTERACTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OVER THE REGION AGAIN BRING SOME DOUBT IN HOW THIS WILL
PLAY OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK TO CLOSE TO EARLY JUNE
NORMALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
HAVE KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FOR SCATTERED TS AT KTOP/KFOE, BUT
HAVE DELAYED TIMING BY A FEW HOURS. CHANCES SEEM TO BE A BIT
LOWER AT KMHK SO DECIDED TO REMOVE PROB30 WITH CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW IN STORMS OCCURRING THAT FAR WEST THIS EVENING. WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT WHERE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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