518
FXUS63 KTOP 311955
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
KS. A FEW COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
-A WARM FEW DAYS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY WORKWEEK.
-HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR TUESDAY, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA, MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, BACK OVER NORTHEASTERN KS,
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 80S. THE COMPACT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER NORTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LOW,
COMBINED WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LIMITED CIN SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LIMITED, MAYBE AROUND 30
KTS, BUT DCAPE COULD BE AROUND OR JUST OVER 1000 J/KG WITH A
INVERTED-V SIGNAL TO LOW LEVEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS, ANY
STORM THAT FORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. STORMS EXIT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL STAY AROUND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, ALSO PULLING IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
FORCING AND VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR A CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX COULD
LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IF STORMS TRAIN OVER
SOME OF THE SAME AREAS ON TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MANY
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS
IS NOT HIGH CURRENTLY AND COULD DEPEND ON MORNING PRECIPITATION
AND WHERE THE FRONT LINES UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ONE ROUND MAY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE PREVIOUS ROUND, BUT RIGHT
NOW THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (30-60% CHANCE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH) AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY (30-50%
CHANCE AREA-WIDE). TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY MID-WEEK BEHIND
TUESDAY'S FRONT, BUT WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 80S
LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
HAVE KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FOR SCATTERED TS AT KTOP/KFOE, BUT
HAVE DELAYED TIMING BY A FEW HOURS. CHANCES SEEM TO BE A BIT
LOWER AT KMHK SO DECIDED TO REMOVE PROB30 WITH CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW IN STORMS OCCURRING THAT FAR WEST THIS EVENING. WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT WHERE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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