589
FXUS63 KTOP 011656
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED
BY TWO MAIN FEATURES - A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST, AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH THE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE
ROCKIES. WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WE'VE
SEEN A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM IS NOW SOUTH OF US, SUBSIDENCE IN ITS
WAKE IS BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT LITTLE IN
TERMS OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS ACTING TO
TRANSPORT SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE SOUTHWARD, SO SKIES WILL
APPEAR A BIT MILKY AND HAZY TODAY AS THE DENSEST OF THE SMOKE MOVES
OVERHEAD. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL STAY ALOFT, SO NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT OTHER THAN MAYBE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY'S VALUES.
TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ACT TO LIFT A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS. THE DAYTIME WILL
REMAIN WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. BY THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. INITIALLY, THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM WESTERN
KANSAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH TIME AND
EASTERN EXTENT, SO SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
STILL, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL,
DESPITE RATHER WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STEADILY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH THE BULK SHEAR VECTOR
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A MESSY STORM
MODE. SOME STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS IF WE CAN GET SOME AFTERNOON
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE MESSY STORM MODE SHOULD
LARGELY TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STEADY EASTWARD MOTION OF
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHORT-TERM
TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAIN.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. BROAD ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS, ALLOWING
MULTIPLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
THE OLD FRONT IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH, WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. HIGHS STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S AS A RESULT. EACH WEAK
PERTURBATION WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, THOUGH SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LOOK
LIKE THEY'LL STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR AT TERMINALS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE OVER 10 KTS SUSTAINED AFT
15Z WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...PRIETO
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