865
FXUS63 KTOP 020527
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE MONDAY EVENING, SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.
- COOLER TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A DEPARTING EMBEDDED TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION.
UPSTREAM CUTOFF LOW IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CA COASTLINE WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW REGION. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
AFTER LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AS A SFC
TROUGHING BUILDS OVER EASTERN CO. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH BREAKS INTO SEVERAL
VORT MAXES AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIAL CONVERGENCE
COMES FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST,
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHEAST
KANSAS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR
WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAXES NEAR 1000 J/KG SO OVERALL SEVERE
PROBS ARE LOW MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
IN NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING ON THE
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUGGEST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
STABILIZING SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED, IT'S DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN THE COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR, SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
KANSAS WHERE MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT SETUP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM, A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MOST PROBABLE
HAZARDS. BASED ON THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT,
CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING IS LOW HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CAUSING SHORT TERM FLASH AND/OR RIVER FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY AS HIGH PWAT VALUES TO 1.8 INCHES SUGGEST FAIRLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING HIGHS
BACK TO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIP CHANCES
RETURN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE REGION. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW
DIFFERING 500 MB HEIGHTS/TIMING AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
THEREFORE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN RAIN CHANCES, LET ALONE QPF AMOUNTS.
THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A WASHOUT IS CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTED, AND PROBS FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW BASED ON THE TIMING
AND MODE FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. SOUTH WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE
SHALLOW GROUND FOG FORMATION. SOME GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
JET FORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST BUT INCREASE LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...POAGE
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