308
FXUS63 KTOP 020745
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
FEW OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND WIND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- WARM TODAY BUT COOLER WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF LEE TROUGHING
WITH MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES JUST UPSTREAM. A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES AROUND 90.
A SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE MAKES ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WHILE A NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE USHERS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND A LOW-LEVEL JET NEARING 50 KNOTS SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN, WITH MOST CAMS SUGGESTING THE MOST ROBUST
CONVECTION IN THE 04Z TO 08Z WINDOW, BUT MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
WINDS KEEP STRONG SHEAR IN CHECK. AS THE SOUTHERN WAVE PASSES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANOTHER UPTICK IN SEVERE WEATHER MAY
OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ML/MUCAPE TO APPROACH 1000
J/KG AGAIN AND STRONGER SHEAR. VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LOW SO LOOKING AT MAINLY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN WITH THE LATEST HREF AND SREF
RUNS SHOWING THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING IN EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR TO JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW
INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENT WHICH COULD RESULT
IN AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH A RELATIVE
DRY PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGS MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO LESS OF A CONCERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. SOUTH WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE
SHALLOW GROUND FOG FORMATION. SOME GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AFTER SUNSET AS A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
JET FORMS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST BUT INCREASE LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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