530
FXUS63 KTOP 230803
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
303 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (60%-90%) TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS,
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
- SEASONAL WEATHER IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S. THERE IS A 30%-55% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE
MID- ATLANTIC AND OH RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SET UP
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. 700MB TEMPS
FROM THE 12Z RAOB WERE STILL QUITE WARM AT +13C. SURFACE OBS
SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS HAS ALLOWED A STRONG SOUTH
WIND TO PERSIST.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. CONSISTENCY AND
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS REMAINS GOOD THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THE
NBM SHOWS SMALL SPREADS IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. WE MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET TO 100 DEGREES ON THE HEAT INDEX TODAY SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE
MIXING OUT INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. BUT SIMILAR HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LESS MIXING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SO HEAT INDICES MAY BE A TICK HIGH. IN ANY CASE REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS APPEARS PRETTY MARGINAL AND AM FINE WITH LETTING THE
HEAT AND WIND ADVISORIES EXPIRE THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE POPS INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO COOL OFF ALLOWING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO SPARK CONVECTION. BULK SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK AT AROUND 20KT. BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 3500 J/KG AND DCAPE BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG SUGGEST
PULSE STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD
WITH THE STORMS. THERE IS A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TOO AS
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS PROG STORM MOTIONS OF ONLY 10 TO 15KT. THAT
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND THE SETUP
FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST HAS 1 TO 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND THE 12Z HREF SHOWS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE FORECAST
CONTINUES WITH CHANCE POPS. MODELS SHOW THAT PERHAPS THE UPPER RIDGE
NOSES BACK INTO EASTERN KS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN FROM THE 00Z ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD, POPS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DRIVEN MORE BY MESO SCALE FEATURES AND OF
A LOWER PREDICTABILITY. SO I DON'T HAVE ANY PROBLEMS WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FROM THE NBM. FOR A SUMMER TIME PATTERN, THIS IS IN LINE
WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETTING UP, TEMPS SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FEW-
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY REACH KMHK TERMINAL TOWARDS
00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE KMHK TERMINAL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE KTOP AND
KFOE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THOUGH A FEW CAMS ARE
SHOWING 30 TO 40 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 2Z TUE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GARGAN
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